The Outcome Of India’s Kashmir Bet Could Be Profound

This has been a year when India’s national security environment saw a radical shift. From India’s decision to use air power in response to Pakistan’s continuing use of terrorism as an instrument of state policy to a formal announcement of a chief of defence staff, 2019 has been a year of many firsts. All these decisions will have a significant bearing on the long-term national security of the country. However, it is the decision by the Narendra Modi government in August to abrogate Article 370 of the Constitution, which had given special status to the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir, that perhaps will be most consequential in the short-to-medium term. This bold move continues to attract global attention. Most recently, it was Sweden that emphasized “the importance of respect for human rights”, and called for the lifting of remaining restrictions in Kashmir, though it continued to underscore the need for a bilateral “political solution” between India and Pakistan. Last month, German chancellor Angela Merkel, during her visit to Delhi, had also termed the restrictions in the region as “not sustainable”. A bipartisan resolution was introduced earlier this month in the US House of Representatives seeking an early release of political detainees in Kashmir and calling for an end to the communications clampdown in the region. For a decision as far-reaching as the one India made with regard to Jammu and Kashmir, it would be natural for the international community to respond with some degree of urgency to the altered status quo. However, what is remarkable is how mild the international response has been. This has a lot to do with the changing global realities, but it is also a result of the effective diplomatic and political management of the issue by New Delhi. In some ways, the issue of Kashmir was no longer as potent on the global stage in 2019 as it was in the 1980s and 1990s.